Report on the Spring Forecast 2026


As usual we have a prompt report on what the Chancellor had to say in her Spring Forecast statement on Tuesday 3rd March 2026 which highlights the key points of interest for MGV8 enthusiasts.
Spring Forecast 2026 GOV.UK website
Posted: 260303 @ 13.20

Autumn Budget 2025 - what did Rachel Reeves reveal? See our review. Link


Leaks? - a leak reported in the Business section of the Daily Telegraph noted a Treasury source said "We want this (the Spring Forecast) to be a complete non-event. The goal is to be as boring as possible in the hope it will be seen as a sign of stability".

See a guide to budget statement buzzwords. More...

What did we expect in the Spring Forecast 2026?
See views of Bishop Fleming. Link
See guide from Alexander & Co. Link

Spring Forecast 2026 - what did Rachel Reeves reveal
Today the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast statement to the House of Commons updating MPs on the country's finances and the Government's plans for tax and public spending. Alongside her statement, the Government published an updated assessment of the UK economy from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). That assessment indicated the outlook for the UK economy since the Autumn Budget in October 2025.

OBR independent report
Office for Budget Responsibility’s March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was released as the Chancellor sat down. OBR report

The OBR report include the clarification: "The Government set out in the November 2025 Budget Statement that it would legislate so that the OBR only assesses performance against fiscal rules once a year at Budgets, while the OBR would continue to publish a second annual five-year forecast each spring. This EFO therefore does not include an assessment of performance against the fiscal rules. In terms of the legislation underpinning this change, the Charter for Budget Responsibility: Autumn 2025 was passed into law on 24 February 2026. This update to the Charter removes the requirement that OBR forecasts be accompanied by assessments of “the extent to which fiscal policy has delivered, or is likely to deliver, the fiscal mandate”, removing the requirement for this EFO to include such an assessment. In producing this EFO without an assessment of performance against the fiscal rules, we are also acting on the reasonable assumption that the law will have changed by the end of the financial year to require us to only produce one assessment a year, as the Government proposes in the Finance Bill 2025-26".

What did the press see coming in the Spring Forecast?
Reports in the press ahead of the statement indicated Rachel Reeves would fight to resist tax or spending shifts. A recent feature in the Business section the Daily Telegraph reported a Treasury source had said "We want this (the Spring Forecast) to be a complete non-event. The goal is to be as boring as possible in the hope it will be seen as a sign of stability". On listening to the Chancellor's relatively brief statement it seems it achieved that expectation.

Fuel duty increase
There was no mention in the Chancellor's statement today that an increase in fuel duty due in September 2026, that was included the Chancellor's Budget Statement in 2025, has been scrapped. This is disappointing particularly as motor fuel costs are likely to rise with the current serious problems in the Middle East and consequent disruption to ships carrying oil and gas from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to destinations around the Word.

BBC News: key takeaways from the OBR forecasts
Rachel Clun (BBC Business reporter) released a "summary of the Spring Forecast statement shortly after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s latest forecasts for the UK economy were published. It’s important to note that these forecasts were finalised before the US-Israeli war with Iran began. Here are the key figures:
> The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.4% originally forecast in November 2025.
> Inflation is forecast to fall faster than previously thought, reaching 2.3% during 2026 before reaching the Bank of England's target of 2% by the end of the year.
> Unemployment is expected to now peak at 5.3%, up from a 4.9% peak forecast at the Budget 2025.
> And the Government’s fiscal headroom - its buffer in the case of economic shocks - has risen, from £21.7bn to £23.6bn".
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