What to expect from the Autumn Statement 2023
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Posted: 231030
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Autumn
Statement 2023: when is it and what will Jeremy Hunt unveil?
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt
will deliver his Autumn Statement on Wednesday 22nd November to the
House of Commons when he will update MPs on the country's finances
and the Government's plans for tax and public spending, based on the
latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The Chancellor's statement will need to provide information on the
UK Government's anticipated revenue generation and announcements on
plans for taxation and public spending.
The Chancellor has often ruled out the possibility of tax cuts in
the near future, saying it will be 'virtually impossible' to do that
until the UK Government's high debt levels are brought down and the
economy is under control. But
recently it seems the Chancellor may consider tax cuts after all,
so long as it meets the target of halving inflation by the end of
this year. That pledge was made by the Prime Minister in January 2023
when CPI inflation was 10.1%, so it would need to drop to around 5%
by December 2023. It currently stands at 6.7% but with the country's
public finances have worsening, it will mean there is very little
room for any kind of tax cut in the Autumn Statement.
The Autumn Statement will start at 12.30pm after Prime Minister's
Questions and it's expected to last for a maximum of an hour.
As
usual we will have a prompt report on the statement and the measures
announced by the Chancellor of interest to classic motoring enthusiasts
which will posted here within an hour or so of his sitting down in
the House of Commons.
What could we see of interest to classic car enthusiasts?
We
hope the freeze on fuel duty will continue and also that there will
be no further increases in Insurance Premium Tax (IPT). Classic car
enthusiasts will very much hope the rolling 40 year road tax exemption
for cars with "Historic VED "status will continue.
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Report
of the Autumn Statement
As usual we will have a prompt report on what the Chancellor has to
say shortly after her finishes his statement to MPs highlighting the
key points of interest to V8 Register members..
See our earlier report on fuel
duty |
Fuel
duty hike
The
Chancellor has been under pressure to raise fuel duty has been mentioned
in press reports. Fuel duty is a tax included in the price you pay
for petrol and diesel at filling station pumps and also on oil used
for heating. It was cut by 5p in March 2022 by the then Chancellor
Rishi Sunak, but Treasury officials have reportedly told Hunt he needs
to hike the rate by at least 2p to try and recover around £5bn
of tax revenue lost each year since the duty was reduced. That could
see fuel duty rising to 55p a litre for petrol and diesel and with
VAT also levied on fuel duty, there is a compounding effect on any
fuel duty rise. Fuel duty was last raised in 2011 and Hunt has previously
said that any continuation of the current freeze would be depend on
the state of public finances.
Break
from the state pension triple-lock
Many
pensioners will have been hoping for a good increase to their state
pension in the next tax year. There have been rumours the Treasury
is considering plans to "adjust" the 'triple lock', a protection
that dates back to 2010 and guarantees pensions will be boosted by
either Septembers inflation, earnings growth (from the period
between May to July) or 2.5% - whichever is highest. Based on current
wage growth figures, it would mean a serious rise of 8.5% from April
2024. With other segments of the population struggling with higher
mortgage rates and the cost of living it's possible the Government
may decide to exclude bonuses from its triple lock calculation, lowering
the wage growth figure to 7.8%. It's been reported that step could
save the Government £1bn. But any adjustment to the triple lock
would be controversial, because the Conservatives pledged in their
last election manifesto not to tamper with the triple lock formula.
To help fund the rise from the triple lock formula the Government
might consider scrapping the annual winter fuel allowance for all
but the poorest pensioners.
Other topics
UK public warms to road pricing as fuel
duty replacement is considered
The Government's ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles
from 2030 has made reform of motor taxes an urgent question for
the Treasury because the switch to electric cars means almost
£30bn in fuel duty raised annually for the Treasury will need
to be replaced. But politicians have shied away from introducing road
pricing as an alternative, however recent polling for the Social Market
Foundation suggests that the conventional political wisdom that voters
are opposed to road pricing no longer holds true. Its research found
that 38% back road pricing to replace fuel duty and other taxes, with
just over a quarter opposed (26%). The rest were open to persuasion,
the SMF said, and shared a strong public perception that fuel duty
was a heavier burden than other taxes. Fuel duty is 58p per litre
of petrol or diesel in the UK and the rate has been frozen by successive
Conservative chancellors for more than a decade after becoming a politically
sensitive issue after protests.
Capital Gains Tax changes
Unlike other types of investment assets, the profit you make upon
the disposal of a classic car does not generally attract Capital Gain
Tax (CGT). This is because cars are generally classed as a wasting
asset that is estimated to have less than 50 years
worth of use remaining. Even if the vehicle remains in existence for
a period in excess of those 50 years, the same exemption applies.
The tax is paid
when people sell assets such as shares or a second home. There are
rumours that the current CGT rates may be tinkered with and it's been
suggested that CGT rates could be aligned more closely with income
tax rates, which could mean scrapping the current CGT rates of 10%
and 20% (or 18% and 28% for property) and instead making everyone
pay income tax rates on their gains. A report by the Office of Tax
Simplification, published in November 2020, recommended that CGT rates
should be increased to bring them into line with income tax. But it
would be unlikely to raise significant extra amounts of tax, as it
is typically paid by only about 275,000 taxpayers and raises less
than £10bn a year.
Wealth Tax
There has been much political discussion about a one-off wealth tax
to help pay for the huge debt built up by the UK Government providing
various levels of COVID support measures. Some would prefer to see
a more permanent wealth tax and others firmly against it but there
are very few examples of wealth taxes that work well and over the
last few decades many have been abandoned. The UK already has two
ways in which to tax assets; capital gains tax and inheritance tax.
Both of these regimes are far from perfect, but it arguably makes
more sense to deal with some of the flaws in those two regimes rather
than introduce a third asset tax. The
UK Government has already discounted a one-off wealth tax so, although
the conversations may well continue, but KPMG
say they "would not expect the introduction of a wealth tax during
this Government. But never say never!". |
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